Archive for the ‘Wisdom’ Category

“We have not lost wealth, but just the illusion of wealth.”

April 10, 2009

So says Jeremy Grantham in his January 2009 investment letter.

I’d like to add a Battlestar-style “So say we all” and end the post. Unfortunately, politicians are doing their damnedest to recreate the illusion of limitless credit by borrowing even more.

We’re all doomed!

January 22, 2008

“If you expect to be a net saver during the next 5 years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.”

Warren Buffett, chairman’s letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 1997.

The Framing of Political Arguments

January 16, 2008

The usual terminology of political language is stupid. What is ‘left’ and what is ‘right’? Why should Hitler be ‘right’ and Stalin, his temporary friend, be ‘left’? Who is ‘reactionary’ and who is ‘progressive’? Reaction against an unwise policy is not to be condemned. And progress towards chaos is not to be commended. Nothing should find acceptance just because it is new, radical, and fashionable. ‘Orthodoxy’ is not an evil if the doctrine on which the ‘orthodox’ stand is sound. Who is anti-labor, those who want to lower labor to the Russian level, or those who want for labor the capitalistic standard of the United States? Who is ‘nationalist,’ those who want to bring their nation under the heel of the Nazis, or those who want to preserve its independence?

Ludwig von Mises inĀ  Interventionism, An Economic Analysis (1940).

Yearly Reminder

January 2, 2008

Don’t chase hot stocks unnecessarily. Investors with decades of experience, who know their stock picks inside out and upside down get burnt all the time.

The Sure Thing Almost Nobody Plays

Imagine you are entering a deluxe, well-appointed casino. Off the lavish entry foyer, there are two ample gambling wings, one hued in reds, the other in muted greens. The red wing looks enticing, but if I may insist, let’s first enter the less crowded green rooms to watch the action.

The atmosphere is unhurried, the blackjack tables are sparsely attended, and every player sits behind a mound of green and black chips. You think at first you’ve come to the wrong place. You see the ordinary table limits, the ordinary clothes, the ordinary games. But then how did these ordinary people get such piles of money?

Then it comes to you. They’re all winning. In fact, as you walk around the green wing, you hardly can find a losing player. You know, of course, that the average house take on table games is 5%, but as you count winning and losing hands, you realize these players are getting a better break. They seem to be gaining at a rate of 60% to 40%. You start fresh and take another count. The results are the same.

A pit boss appears at your shoulder.

“Excuse me,” you say, “but can this be right? The odds favor the players?”

“Yes, indeed. The odds in the green room usually run 60 to 40. It’s been that way since we opened.”

“But…most of the players must go away winners.”

“They sure do. At those odds, we calculate that 9,999 out of 10,000 make money. At our high-stakes tables in the back, they do even better, with winners running about 20,000 to 1. It’s a good thing we get so few players, or they’d break the house.”

Somewhat amazed, you thank him and shake your head. There’s no time to lose, you decide, but you’ll need more than the few dollars you have in your pocket. You hatch a plan to gather your life savings, come back to the casino, and win the bundle you’ve been dreaming of.

On your way out, you glance into the red wing. The action level is much, much higher. The room is crowded and fairly roars with excitement. Can it be even better here, you wonder? Curious, you go in. Players bet multiple table positions, wave frantically for change, entreat the gods for luck. You see few green and black chips, fewer winning players. The piles of chips in front of them are dwindling with each hand. In fact, the odds are worse than normal. Again, you start to count. Although the players continue to excitedly toss in their chips, the odds appear to be maybe 60 to 40 in favor of the house. Once more, your curiosity whetted, you walk over to a pit boss and ask her the odds at these tables.

She tells you what you suspected. They are 60 to 40 in favor of the casino. Warming up to the subject, she chuckles and says, “This room coins gold for the casino, the chances are 9,999 in 10,000 rounds that we wind up winners.” You don’t have to be a genius to see that this is obviously not the place you want to be.

You go home and get your stash. You return to the casino with your fistful of money, excited, eager for action, all the time figuring how you’ll do even better at the game. But then a strange thing happens. You walk into the red wing and start to play.

The first few paragraphs from David Dreman’s Contrarian Investment Strategies. Loan it from a library, borrow it from a friend, heck even spend cold cash on it if need be.

For the private investor the red wing is ever so tempting. Yet, is the positive sum game offered by the green wing, the ability to get rich slowly, so insufferable?